Timeline

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election will be held on Tuesday, September 14th, 2021.

Exactly 3 weeks from today ( Tuesday 2021-August-24th ).

 

Lineage

This is our first post.

On later posts will touch on how to register to vote.

Absentee Ballot.

Ensuring your votes count, etc.

 

Issues

California Burning

1. Climate
   • Wildfires burn
   • Drought devastates California farms
2. Utilities
   • Electricity
     • Utilities warn against too much electricity use.
3. Medical
   • Hospital ICUs hold largely unvaccinated COVID-19 patients.
   • Even those who got vaccines now contemplate the prospect of a third shot

Calendar

Election Date

Commentary

Kim Bojórquez, Sacramento Bee

Link

“Once the recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom qualified for the ballot, Democrats who control statewide offices had a choice.

They could delay the vote or speed it along. They chose to set an early recall election date and changed state law in order to do so in late June, reasoning that things were looking up as the state re-opened and COVID-19 rates declined.

Setting the date on Sept. 14 at the time appeared likely to coincide with the reopening of schools while avoiding the peak of California’s wildfire season.”

Approval Rating

Governor Gavin Newson

Governor Gavin Newson Approval Ratings from January 2019 to May 2021

 

TurnOut

The Berkeley Poll

1. The Berkeley poll found that 90% of Republicans expressed a high interest in recall voting.
2. Whereas, only 60% of Democrats expressed interest in recall voting

Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York City

Link

1. 1. Moving the election up to September 2021 was a “huge mistake” for the Newsom administration.
   2. He said the governor’s team could have taken advantage of extra time to mobilize supportive voters and increase fundraising efforts.
   3. Spivak, who studies recall elections, said mobilizing voters to participate is always a problem.
   4. “He’s got to make sure his voters come out,” Spivak said. “And that’s a challenge in recalls.”

Polling

Polls

FiveThirtyEight

2021-September-8th

Link

2021-August-18th

Link

 

Analysis

Quick Points.

1. Most Polls
   • Most of the Poll since Mid July 2021 show a tightening race
   • The gap is about 3 points favoring a keep
2. Large Variance
   • Survey USA
     • Early August 2021
       • 10 Points gap favoring Remove
   • Change Research
     • Mid-June 2021
       • 15 Points gap favoring Keep

 

 

Polling Demographics

Emerson College

Emerson Polling

Link

1. Education
   • Education appears to impact voter attitudes toward the recall as respondents without a college degree were more in favor of the recall (54% recall/39% keep) than those with a college degree (36% recall/59% keep).
2. Racial
   • Hispanics are the only racial group in favor of the recall (54% recall/41% keep),
   • White respondents were split (48% recall/49% keep).
   • Majorities of Black respondents favor keep (41% recall/57% keep)
   • Asian respondents (30% recall/49% keep) were in favor of keeping Newsom as Governor.
3. Party Affiliation
   • Majorities of Republicans (80% recall/16% keep) and Independents (54% recall/ 34% keep) are in favor of the recall.
   • Democrats are largely in favor of keeping Newsom, but almost a quarter plan to vote to recall the Governor (23% recall/73% keep).
4. Gender
   • Men are split (47% recall/47% keep)
   • Women are more in favor of keeping Newsom (44% recall/51% keep)
5. A plurality of voters (40%) are unsure which candidate they will choose for the second ballot question, who should replace Gov. Newsom in the case of his recall.
6. Candidates
   • Larry Elder
     • Leading the field of candidates is talk radio host Larry Elder, at 23%.
     • Since July’s poll, Elder has gained seven percentage points.
     • A plurality (44%) of Republicans and nearly a third (29%) of Independents are planning to vote for Elder.
     • A majority of Trump voters from 2020 (55%) are supporting Elder
   • John Cox
     • Businessman John Cox is at 7%
   • Caitlyn Jenner
     • TV Personality Caitlyn Jenner is at 7%
   • Kevin Kiley
     • California State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley at 5%
   • Kevin Faulconer
     • Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer at 4%
   • Kevin Paffrath
     • Social media influencer Kevin Paffrath at 1%.
7. Thirteen percent (13%) of respondents reported that they plan to vote for someone else.

 

Summary

In any election, turnout is the most important element.

Who can turn out their voters?

This is especially true in midterm elections.

 

References

Policy and Politics

Write-Up

1. Cal Matters ( CalMatters.Org )
   • Could Latino voters make the difference in whether Newsom survives California’s recall election?
     Authored :- Laurel Rosenhall
     Date Published:- 2021-August-11th
     Link

Video

1. Cal Matters ( CalMatters.Org )
   • Gov. Newsom needs democratic support for recall election | This week in California politics
     • Profile
       • CalMatters political expert Emiy Hoeven talks about what Gov. Newsom needs to win the recall election, mask mandates and other topics in California politics.
     • Videos
       • Video #1
         Channel:- ABC 10
         Date Published:- 2021-August-11th
         Date Added:- 2021-August-25th
         Link

Election Polling

1. FiveThirtyEight
   • Governor Recall
     • Governor Recall – California – Latest Polls
       Link
     • Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election
       Date Published:- 2021-August-18th
       Link
2. Change Research
   • Newsom At 57% As Democrats’ Motivation To Vote In Recall Grows
     • 2021-August-6th
       Link
3. Emerson College
   • Emerson Polling
     • Newsom Clings to Lead in Recall While Crime Becomes a Top Issue for CA Voters
       Link
4. Moore Information Group
   • California Recall Survey Results
     • 2021-June-9th
       Link
5. Redfield & Wilton Strategies
   • California Recall Election Voting Intention (20-22 August) – September 1, 2021
     Link
6. Survey USA
   • Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26046
     • Statewide, Majority of CA Voters Back Newsom Recall; YouTube’s “Meet Kevin” Paffrath, Radio’s Larry Elder Lead Pack of Potential Replacements
       Date Published:- 2021-August-4th
       Link
   • Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26076
     • Young Voters Respect Their Elder … But Those Age 35+ Want Newsom to Remain CA Governor
       Date Published:- 2021-August-28th
       Link
7. Trafalgar Group
   • California Recall Election Aug Survey
     • California Recall Election Aug Survey
       Date Published:- 2021-August-31st
       Link

How To Vote

1. KXTV – ABC 10 ( Sacramento, CA )
   • How to vote in California’s recall election
     Link

 

Newspaper Coverage

1. Sacramento Bee
   • Kim Bojórquez
     • Democrats sped up Gavin Newsom’s recall to avoid California crises. They’re happening anyway
       Link
   • Sophia Bollag
     • Larry Elder is the leader among California recall candidates. That might help Gavin Newsom
       Date Published:- 2021-August-21st
       Link
2. Los Angeles Times
   • Before the California recall, Larry Elder’s charity failed
     Link

Online Web Site

1. Politico
   • David Siders
     • Democrats sweat turnout disaster in California without Trump to run against
       Date Published:- 2021-August-21st
       Link
2. Yahoo
   • Yahoo News
     • California GOP Recall Candidate Larry Elder Wanted To End Medicaid
       Link