Mohamed El-Erian, An Economist

Profile

Wikipedia

Link

Mohamed Aly El-Erian is an economist and businessman. He is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer (2007–2014).

He was chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council (2012–17), and is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and a contributing editor to the Financial Times.

Since 2014, he has been on the panel of experts that judged and selected the Financial Times/McKinsey Business Book of the Year.

He is also a regular contributor to “Project Syndicate”, Yahoo Finance, Business Insider as well as Fortune/CNN, and Foreign Policy.

Named for four years in a row as one of Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers,” he has written two New York Times Best Sellers, including, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse published in January 2016 by Random House.

Together with Sir Harvey McGrath, he co-chairs the capital campaign for Cambridge University. On July 1, 2019, El-Erian was appointed Senior Global Fellow at The Lauder Institute and Part-Time Professor of Practice at The Wharton School.

Early Childhood

Wikipedia

Link

El-Erian was born in New York City to Egyptian parents, Abdullah El-Erian, and Nadia Shoukry, a cousin of Egyptian politician Ibrahim Shoukry.

Shortly after his birth, the family moved back to Egypt, where El-Erian spent some of his early childhood along with short periods in Europe where his father attended meetings of the UN law commission.

The family moved back to New York when his father took a position at the United Nations. From 1971–73, they lived in France, where El-Erian’s father was the Egyptian Ambassador to France.

After attending St John’s School, Leatherhead, a boarding school in England, he gained a scholarship to Queens’ College, Cambridge, and received a bachelor’s degree in economics in 1980.

He later obtained a master’s degree and a doctorate in economics from St Antony’s College, Oxford.

In June 2011, El-Erian received an honorary doctorate degree from the American University in Cairo.

In December 2013, he became an honorary fellow of Queens’ College, Cambridge.

 

Videos

Economics

Economy Fundamental Changes

2021

2021 – Summer
  1. How The U.S. Economy Will Fundamentally Change: Mohamed El-Erian
    • Profile
      • Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian answers some big questions about how the U.S. will get back to work.
      • He calls the pandemic “the great unequalizer” and sees increased inequality in every institution he reviews.
      • El-Erian warns this new distribution of wealth and fortune is much less stable than the normal bell curve and calls on companies to take responsibility for their communities.
    • Videos
      • Video #1
        Channel:- CNBC Television
        Date Published:- 2021-June-1st
        Date Added:- 2021-July-27th
        Link

Economics Inflation

2021

2021 – Summer
  1. Mohamed El-Erian: Inflation will run higher than what the Fed expects
    • Profile
      • CNBC’s “Squawk Box” team discusses IPOs, markets, and more with Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz.
    • Videos
      • Video #1
        Channel:- CNBC Television
        Date Published:- 2021-July-26th
        Date Added:- 2021-July-27th
        Link

 

Transcripts

Economy

How The U.S. Economy Will Fundamentally Change: Mohamed El-Erian

  1. Hybrid Work Place
    • Difference
      • When the workforce is fully vaccinated
    • Choices and Willingness
      • Hybrid Work
    • Fluid
      • The fluidity between working at work and those who prefer to work from home
    • Companies
      • Cost Cutting
  2. Workforce
    • Inadevently pressed the speed button on living in virtual places
    • Massive migration in living in virtual places
    • Some of it will be reversed
    • But, most of it will not be reversed
  3. Infrastructure
    • Lack of Infrastructure for living in virtual places
    • Zoom
      • Who would have thought Zoom will become whom it became
    • Data Management
      • Data Deluge
      • Big Platforms
      • Choices to the providers of Data
  4. Future of Cities
    • Big Headquarters
    • Spoke Models
    • Mothership
  5. Taxes
    • States fight over tax income
    • Uniform approach
    • How do you assign residency when the workforce goes virtual
  6. Social Services
    • Big Cities
    • Cities
      • City – New York
        • End of New York
    • Pandemic
      • Pandemic intruded on the status quo in urban planning
  7. Salaries
    • Salaries go down if people
    • Skills Mismatches
    • Bifurcation
      • Definition
        • the division of something into two branches or parts.
      • Examples
        • “the bifurcation of the profession into social do-gooders and self-serving iconoclasts”
    • Bimodal
  8. Inequality
    • You have heard the phrase “We are all in this together
    • It did take very long to realize this is not true
    • It has not borne out
      • Good
        • Some people were able to get out of this successfully
        • Some people were able to take care of their families much better
        • Some people were able to work from home and not miss a beat
      • Not So Good
        • Others had their livelihood destroyed
        • Others continue to take massive risks in conducting their average lives
        • I think of
          • The people who help us working in the grocery stores
          • Postal Workers
    • We sort of have recognized this pandemic was not equal at all
    • I call it the “Great Unequalizer
    • We have to do a lot of serious thinking
    • Including Companies
      • Companies have a lot of responsibilities inclusive the communities they serve
  9. Institutions
    • Every distribution that I looked at
      • Social
      • Economic
      • Political
    • That used to look well behaved
      • The Bell Shaped
    • The Belly has come down and the tails have gone up
    • Bimodal
      • These bimodal models are much less stable than the normal distribution
    • Stresses
      • This stresses the importance of talking about these issues earlier on
      • We do want these imbalances to take hold and take root
      • We do want to introduce a new avenue of structural instability to our world
  10. How will our work fundamentally change if a significant number of employees continue to work from home for long
    • Service Economy
      •  A good part of our economy serves the labor force
      • Be it
        • Commuting
        • Eateries
        • Delivery
      • That part of the economy will have to evolve
      • The good news is that part of the economy is quite flexible
      • I expect it to evolve quite rapidly
      • Once we have clear evidence of what will emerge
    • Office Real Estate
      • Commercial Real Estate is a much harder sell
      • We currently have too much capacity
  11. Healthcare
    • Employers are allowed to fire anyone who says No to getting the Covid Vaccine
    • I am hoping that will not be an issue
    • Cost Assessment
      • If people review the cost of keeping an employee, the benefits will hopefully be a bit higher than letting go of that same employer
    • Difficulty to weigh
    • Peer Pressure
      • Enormous Peer Pressure on those who are not vaccinated
    • Tensions
      • There will be tensions
      • As there are today on many fronts
    • Industry
      • Internation Travel
        • Will move towards the notion of a vaccine passport
    • Catalyst
      • What we may find is that the catalyst comes outside the workplace
      • People want to travel for holidays
      • And, maybe the driver towards vaccination
    • Future of Healthcare in this nation
      • Tail Risks Exists
      • When they hit the Health sector they are particularly damaging
      • And, that our healthcare providers are not appreciated enough
    • Future Hope
      • What you will want in the future are tools that address these factors and risks
      • Areas
        • Better healthcare overall for everybody and not just for a select few
        • Pays and appreciates our healthcare merited on what they deserve
        • Destination in a mile
        • Unfortunately, right off the bat, I think we will get distracted
  12. Childcare
    • Going into the pandemic, we enjoyed an unused advantage
      • And, that is called the “Upside Down Classroom
    • Upside Down Classroom
      • Lecture by video
      • Use school term for video learning
      • We learned during the pandemic that our kids are quite good at consuming education by video
      • Where they really need help were in specific, targeted areas
      • That is the area that needed the most attention
      • That is where all the homeschooling has gone
    • Hope
      • Delivery of content through video
      • Free up time to help with one-on-one deficiencies
    • Childcare Gaps
      • We have identified significant gaps in childcare provisioning
      • Impacts
        • Labor Force
        • Women
        • Single Parenting
      • I call it Infrastructure, though some people disagree with my classification
        • I see infrastructure as anything that enables
          • Physical Activities
          • Human Activities
          • Technological Activities
        • If you want to see more participation in the workforce you have to focus deeply on child care
    • Women impacted most
      • worrisome
        • It is worrisome that we have gone backward on female participation in the labor force
        • we have gone backward on poverty reduction
        • we have gone backward on areas that impact everybody
      • Hope
        • I think if the government steps in and help with childcare this is temporary and reversible
        • It should be
        • This is not hard to solve
        • It is not an engineering problem
        • It is a resource problem
        • And, also it is a good area for public and private collaboration
  13. Post Pandemic Recovery
    • Years
      • 2021
        • Good Economy Recovery
      • 2022
        • We should have regained most of our losses
    • Accounting Basis
      • My projection is on an aggregate level
    • What is concerning
      • Inequalities
        • Inequalities have worsened
        • Not just in income and wealth
        • But, also in opportunities
        • Especially hard
          • Certain segments of the workforce have been hit especially hard
          • Minorities have been especially hard
          • Those with less education
        • Doing OK
          • Those with college degrees
      • Emerge
        • We are going to emerge much more unequal
        • And, that is problematic
    • Long Covid Effect
      • Those unfortunate enough to get COVID
      • But, also those who have been isolated for a long time
      • Companies will discover
        • Factors
          • Human Resilience
            • Human Resilience has been run down
          • Social Capital
            • Social Capital has suffered
              • Network Fabric
        • Has been eroded
      • And, those are things that are very meaningful to every company
      • They are areas each company will have to work on
  14. Silver Linings
    • We have yet to reach that place that we can look back and see the silver linings
    • For very good reasons we are still suffering through the costs
    • We are still very much factoring in
      • The costs
      • The negative consequences
    • Yet, there are a lot of silver learnings
      • We can work smarter
      • Evolve into smarter work places
      • Where there will be segments that suffer irreparably it might not be as bad as the early prognosis

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