Election – 2020 – Insightful Blogs


Interesting take by bloggers.



  1. FiveThirtyEight
    • 2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage
  2. Politico Europe
    • Live blog: Europe reacts to US election




2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage


  1. NATE SILVER @ NOV. 4, 1:27 AM
    So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.Less likely paths would involve his winning North Carolina, or other scenarios where he loses Wisconsin or Michigan but does well enough elsewhere.
  2. NATE SILVER @ NOV. 4, 1:23 AM
    Fox News has called Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District for Biden, becoming the first network to do so. They’re also the only network to have called Arizona for Biden. Those two places have an important relationship because if Biden wins both Arizona and NE-02, he doesn’t need Pennsylvania (although he does need both Michigan and Wisconsin). The dynamics are very interesting for media-watcher types thinking about the editorial independence of Fox News’s Decision Desk. The Arizona call was pretty aggressive, but serves as a check against any attempt that Trump might make to claim victory tonight.
    We don’t have a projection for these states yet, but at this point, I’d rather be Biden in Pennsylvania and, as Geoffrey said earlier, Wisconsin.
    Democrat Theresa Greenfield has conceded Iowa’s Senate race to Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. This is a blow to Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate, which now basically require them to pull out wins in North Carolina and Maine.
    With 72 percent of the expected vote in from Wisconsin, Trump leads by a little more than 4 points and around 114,000 votes. But in terms of what’s left, it might be enough to put Biden over the top. The big story is Milwaukee County, where only 36 percent of the expected vote is in. That along with 10 percent of the expected vote left out in deep-blue Dane County (Madison) leaves things very much up in the air.
  6. FIVEY FOX @ NOV. 4, 12:53 AM
    ABC News projects that Donald Trump will win Iowa.
    ABC News also projects that Republican Joni Ernst will win the Senate race in Iowa.
  7. NATE SILVER @ NOV. 4, 12:52 AM
    Iowa projected for Trump by ABC News. Looks like Ann Selzer is pretty good at polling after all!
  8. NATE SILVER @ NOV. 4, 12:45 AM
    Yeah, that Minnesota projection — which ABC hasn’t made yet! — is bullish for Biden in Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe less so in Pennsylvania, which was polling more tightly and which isn’t as similar demographically to Minnesota.
  9. NATHANIEL RAKICH @ NOV. 4, 12:44 AM
    Our best clue to how Wisconsin might go could be found in next-door Minnesota, where the Associated Press has just projected Biden as the winner. In the AP’s count, Biden leads Trump by an impressive 12 points there, with 76 percent of the expected vote reporting. In 2016, Wisconsin was just 3 points more Republican-leaning than Minnesota.
  10. NATHANIEL RAKICH @ NOV. 4, 12:31 AM
    Georgia was one state where we were expected to get timely results. Well, so much for that — separate problems in Fulton County (a burst pipe) and Gwinnett County (a software issue) have delayed the counting of absentee ballots. In Gwinnett, 80,000 ballots were affected ,but it sounds like they are still being counted tonight, per Atlanta Journal Constitution reporting. However, some ballots will have to be manually checked, which could cause the results to change. In Fulton, election officials anticipated having 20,000 ballots left to count tomorrow, with results expected no earlier than noon.
  11. GEOFFREY SKELLEY @ NOV. 4, 12:14 AM
    One of the big uncalled states is Georgia, where Trump leads by about 8 percentage points with 79 percent of the expected vote reporting, according to ABC News. On its face, that would seem to be pretty good for Trump. But The New York Times’ needle now gives Biden a slight edge, probably because there are many votes left to be counted in the Atlanta area. Only half of the expected vote is in from deep-blue Fulton County, and only about one-third is in from next-door DeKalb County. Fulton’s count was slowed by a burst pipe at State Farm Arena, and a couple of precincts in DeKalb had their poll-closing times extended by a judge. So it appears a fair number of Democratic-leaning votes are outstanding, but it could take a while before we know what the near-final tallies look like.
  12. CLARE MALONE @ NOV. 4, 12:03 AM
    The Trump and McSally campaigns both seem to pretty damn ticked off at the Fox projection of Arizona for Biden. McSally’s campaign is claiming that there are a million votes not yet counted, but it seems to be the consensus at FiveThirtyEight that they’re rounding up quite a bit there with that number. Though, as our friend Nate Cohn at the Times points out, the projection was made quite early.
  13. MATT GROSSMANN @ NOV. 3, 11:33 PM
    Fox News, which has its own decision desk and exit poll data, has called Arizona for Biden and Florida for Trump. They also called the Arizona Senate for Kelly. We have seen no other news organization call Arizona, which may mean this call is premature. Keep an eye on other outlets to see if they wind up backing up or conflicting with Fox.
  14. CLARE MALONE @ NOV. 3, 11:31 PM
    Arizona is looking promising for Biden. I wrote a couple of months ago about why the state seems to have been trending more and more purple. Barry Goldwater might be spinning in his grave, but analysts I talked to there said the state was a lot more independent-minded and small-c conservative (as opposed to Republican) than we give it credit for.


Politico Europe

Live blog: Europe reacts to US election

  1. Shawn Pogatchnik @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 3:31 PMFORMER TOP EU DIPLOMAT: TRUMP HAS TAUGHT US HOW TO GO IT ALONEFormer EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini says Europe has learned how to “go it alone” during the Trump years but wouldn’t need to keep doing this if Joe Biden wins.“If Trump is re-elected for another term, we will need to … sit together and define how to do damage control, if it’s four more years of this,” she told a Dublin-based think tank, the Institute of International and European Affairs.

    Mogherini noted that the EU’s fundamental policy differences with Trump include “supporting multilateralism, climate change, approach to negotiations, and the cooperative versus transactional approach.” The challenge from a second Trump term, she said, would be “to preserve what can be preserved without creating too much damage.”

    By contrast, she said a Biden administration would open the door to “refreshing and revising the paradigm of our relations.”
    But she said the Trump experience had damaged transatlantic trust and, in the process, taught the EU a valuable lesson.

    “We Europeans have realized that there are some issues on which we can disagree with Washington. This is not the best option but it’s possible, and we have a role to play in any case as Europeans. And sometimes, take the Iran deal, a life-saving role for international agreements,” she said.

    “We prefer to go together with Washington, but if not, we can go alone. I would expect with a Biden administration, that will not happen again, not going alone.”

  2. Barbara Moens @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 3:08 PMUS UNCERTAINTY HANGS OVER WORLD TRADE CHIEF RACEThe uncertainty about the result of the U.S. election also leaves the future of the World Trade Organization in the balance. Many Geneva-based trade diplomats are secretly hoping for a Democratic win to find a way out of the current impasse at the WTO.Why? The U.S. was the sole member to say it doesn’t support the selection of former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the WTO’s next director-general. Unless it reverses that stance, Okonjo-Iweala can not be approved because WTO decisions are made by consensus.

    Biden bides his time: Even a Biden win does not automatically lead to a solution in the race for the next global trade chief. The Democratic nominee has promised to work more closely with allies if elected president. But so far, his campaign has not commented on the decision to block Okonjo-Iweala, who holds dual U.S. citizenship, from being the first woman and African to lead the WTO.

    Trump could be terminal: Four more years of U.S. President Donald Trump, the future of the global trade organization itself would look very bleak. In theory, WTO members could circumvent the U.S. veto via a vote, but that would be a nuclear option, blowing up the organization’s preference for negotiated settlements. Overruling the U.S. by opting for a vote would also make it harder to get Washington on board for any reform plans Okonjo-Iweala might have.

  3. John Rega @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 3:00 PMEUROPEAN MARKETS BOUNCE BACKThe region’s most-watched stock market indexes — including benchmarks in Germany, France and the U.K. — bounced back to positive territory in the afternoon, after opening down due to uncertainty about the U.S. election.Traders had suggested before Tuesday’s election that a Biden victory would increase the chances of a big stimulus spending program. The uncertain outcome put all that in doubt during the market’s opening hours. Still to come: main trading in the U.S.
  4. Lili Bayer @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 2:25 PMHUNGARY ‘PESSIMISTIC’ OF TRUMP REELECTION CHANCESHungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s chief of staff Gergely Gulyás told reporters in Budapest he is “pessimistic” that Donald Trump will win reelection. Orbán is a vocal supporter of the American president.
  5. PIerre-Paul Bermingham @ NOVEMBER 4, 20201:49 PMFRENCH GOVERNMENT PATIENT“We take note that the counting procedure is still ongoing. France will obviously work with the American president who is elected from this,” said government spokesman Gabriel Attal in his press conference after today’s Cabinet meeting.
  6. Cornelius Hirsch @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 1:44 PMSTATE OF THE RACE RIGHT NOWThe race is still undecided with key battleground states too close to call. But a couple of things seem clear:Biden is going to win the popular vote

    As more ballots are counted not only in the battleground states that have not yet been called but also in other states across the U.S., Joe Biden’s lead is growing and he is on track to win the popular vote decisively.

    The paths to victory

    The path for Joe Biden to 270 Electoral College votes hinges on winning Nevada and Wisconsin, where he has pulled ahead, plus overtaking Trump in one of the remaining battleground states —Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Georgia. Trump needs to hold onto the lead in those four states in order to win a second term.

  7. Lili Bayer @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 1:40 PMRAAB: ‘FULL CONFIDENCE’ IN US SYSTEM“We need to be patient and wait and see who wins the US election,” British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab tweeted. “Important the process is given sufficient time to reach a conclusion. We have full confidence in the checks and balances of the US system to produce a result,” he wrote, adding that “the UK-US relationship is in great shape and we are confident it will go from strength to strength whichever candidate wins the election.”
  8. Andrew Gray @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 1:37 PMBIDEN IN A BINDBiden “looks screwed even if he wins,” POLITICO’s Chief Washington Correspondent Ryan Lizza says in an analysis of the election results so far.“A win, of course, is a win. But if Biden is victorious, it will be under radically curtailed circumstances from what Democrats had assumed,” Ryan writes.
  9. Lili Bayer @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 1:29 PMJANSA DEFENDS TWEETAsked why he chose to congratulate U.S. President Donald Trump while the counting of votes continues, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša told POLITICO to “read carefully.”“I congratulated GOP. Our sister party in the IDU,” he said, referring to the International Democrat Union, a group bringing together center-right and conservative parties.

    Earlier, Janša tweeted, “It’s pretty clear that American people have elected ⁦@realDonaldTrump @Mike_Pence for 4moreyears. More delays and facts denying from msm, bigger the final triumph for potus. Congratulations @GOP for strong results across the us ⁦@idualliance.”

    Twitter added a warning to the tweet, declaring “Official sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted.”

  10. Charlie Cooper @ NOVEMBER 4, 20201:09 PMUK PM: NO COMMENTBoris Johnson, who is up in the House of Commons at the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions session, has steered well clear of commenting on events in the U.S.Asked by Labour Leader Keir Starmer whether he agreed “it’s not for a candidate to decide which votes do or don’t count, or when to stop counting,” Johnson responded: “We don’t comment as a U.K. government on the democratic processes of our friends and allies.”
  11. Cristina Gonzalez @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 1:06 PMWARNING FOR EUROPEThe “deep polarization” of America should be a “warning” for Europe, according to Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s Party, the largest political group in the European Parliament. Weber wrote on Twitter that if we “lose the ability to compromise, our democracies are in danger.”In comments given directly to Deutschlandfunk, Weber added: “We have to seek consensus more strongly again, seek togetherness … This is perhaps also a sign that we Europeans, including the Germans, should take a little more seriously.”

    He said that Europe needs “a strong America as a partner” in the face of challenges both at home and abroad.

  12. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 12:34 PMBRUSSELS URGES EU LEADERS TO WAIT FOR OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTThe European Commission disapproved — albeit in an indirect way — Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša’s premature congratulation to Donald Trump for reelection and said that nobody should follow that example.“As everybody, we are awaiting that the authorities in charge of the vote count announce the results,” Commission chief spokesperson Eric Mamer said. “We will abide by whatever announcement is forthcoming officially by the relevant U.S. authorities, and we think that everybody should do likewise.”

    Mamer stressed that diverging comments “are the responsibility of each person concerned,” and dodged a question on whether the Commission was concerned about Trump’s own premature victory claim: “There’s a democratic process in the United States which is well suited for counting the votes that have been cast in this election,” he said.

  13. Cristina Gonzalez @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 12:30 PMBIDEN CAMPAIGN REACTS TO TRUMP’S SUPREME COURT THREATJoe Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon slammed Trump’s overnight comments about going to the Supreme Court to stop vote counting as “outrageous, unprecedented, and incorrect.” She warned that the Democrats’ legal teams are standing by if Trump comes through on his threat.Around 2:30 a.m. local time, President Trump told a crowd gathered in the White House: “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list.”

    It was unclear whether Trump was referring to voting or to vote counting.

    Speaking to reporters before a meeting with fellow EU finance and economics minister German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said: “The USA will be an important partner for us regardless of how the election goes.”Still, in an apparent response to Trump prematurely declaring victory despite a significant number of ballots not having been counted, Scholz said: “what is important for us is that everything is counted out and that we have a clear result in the end that comes out of democratic elections in democratic procedures.”Scholz’s Social Democrat colleague Saskia Esken was more explicit in criticizing Trump’s calls to stop the vote count. “A candidate, even if he is the incumbent president, who calls for postal votes not to be counted, is acting antidemocratically,” she told the newspaper Rheinische Post.
  15. Maïa de La Baume @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 11:48 AMLIBERAL MEP: EUROPE NEEDS TO ‘GROW UP’ REGARDLESS OF ELECTION OUTCOMEDutch MEP Sophie in ‘t Veld from the centrist Renew Europe group tweeted “whatever the final outcome of usaelections2020, “Europe needs to grow up, and grow up fast.”
  16. Karl Mathiesen @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 11:42 AMUS LEAVES PARIS AGREEMENTThe U.S. finally completed its exit from the Paris Climate Agreement at midnight eastern time — while voters were still casting ballots in Hawaii. If Biden wins through in the Midwest, those voters will immediately deliver the U.S. back to the climate diplomacy fold. If Trump wins, the consequences for efforts to cut global emissions are more uncertain. “Whoever is elected has an immense responsibility to help tackle our planet’s greatest challenge,” tweeted former U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May. “As votes continue to be counted it’s a stark reminder of how much is at stake,” U.K. Shadow Foreign Secretary Lisa Nandy said. Sonam Phuntsho Wangdi, a Bhutanese diplomat who chairs a group of 47 least developed countries (LDCs) at climate negotiations, said the long anticipated move was still “disappointing.” Climate change needs a “bold, cooperative global response… For the LDCs the impacts are especially devastating.”Meanwhile in the U.S. and Europe, environmentalists are bracing for Trump’s second term.
  17. Mark Scott @ NOVEMBER 4, 202011:36 AMSOCIAL MEDIA WORKING OVERTIME, BUT MISINFORMATION STILL CIRCULATINGFacebook, Twitter and Google (which owns YouTube) have invested heavily to ensure falsehoods don’t spread around the U.S. election especially when a result is still hours, if not days, away. So far, social media companies have slapped disclaimers on posts from Trump for spreading incorrect information; they’ve stopped political groups from buying ads to promote partisan messages; and they’ve clamped down on foreign actors’ ability to amplify divisive messages to U.S. voters.But where things have become less clear is how they’re handling the reams of partisan content — often pushing false messages around potential voter fraud — that is rife across all three platforms based on POLITICO’s review of the online discussion around the U.S. election. Expect it to get even tougher for the companies as decisions for specific states start to roll in: many will be turning to social media to find out what’s going on, and there are still a lot of falsehoods out there.
  18. Lili Bayer @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 11:20 AMTWITTER ADDS WARNING TO SLOVENIAN PM TWEETThe social media companu has added a warning message to Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša’s tweet claiming that Donald Trump has been elected. “Official sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted,” the social media company wrote.
  19. Maïa de La Baume @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 11:17 AMS&D LEADER: TRUMP’S BEHAVIOR ‘UNDERMINES’ US DEMOCRACYIratxe Garcia, the leader of the socialist group in the European Parliament, said Trump’s behavior “undermines US democracy” and expressed hopes that a victory of Joe Biden will bring “new hope both to US citizens and to the whole world.”
  20. Cornelius Hirsch @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 11:15 AMBIDEN MOVES AHEAD IN WISCONSINWith 95 percent of Wisconsin’s votes counted, Biden is now slightly ahead in the state’s count as POLITICO US reports.
  21. John Rega @ NOVEMBER 4, 202010:52 AMEUROPEAN MARKETS FEEL THE UNCERTAINTYThe main share indexes opened lower in European trading on Wednesday, likely driven by traders’ worst fear: a lack of clarity about the U.S. outcome.
  22. Cristina Gonzalez @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 10:41 AMAMERICAN BUSINESSES SEND MESSAGE OF CONFIDENCEThe trade association representing U.S. businesses in Europe, AmCham EU, urged “patience” as we wait for the outcome to the presidential election, and said it had confidence “in the US institutions and the electoral system.” The nonpartisan group said it is “committed to working with any US Administration to advance the transatlantic relationship, which supports 16 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.”
  23. Maïa de La Baume @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 10:29 AMUS ‘CHAOS’ MEANS EUROPE SHOULD STICK TOGETHERFormer Belgian Prime Minister and current MEP Guy Verhofstadt regretted the ongoing “chaos” across the Atlantic and urged the EU to “take its destiny into its own hands,” whatever the outcome of the U.S. elections will be.
  24. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 10:23 AMGERMAN DEFENSE MINISTER WARNS OF CONSTITUTIONAL CRISISSpeaking to public broadcaster ZDF, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer expressed concern that the United States could slide into a constitutional crisis over the election results and called the situation “explosive.”“What we are seeing now is that the election campaign … is not over, but that it continues,” Kramp-Karrenbauer said. “The battle for the legitimacy of the result, whatever the outcome, has begun. This is a very explosive situation, a situation of which the experts rightly say it could lead to a constitutional crisis in the United States. And that is something that must certainly be of great concern to us overall.”Kramp-Karrenbauer argued in an op-ed this week that “Europe still needs America,” no matter who wins the election.
  25. Cristina Gonzalez @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 10:19 AMNERVES IN BRUSSELSGermany MEP Katarina Barley had some jitters this morning, as Europe wakes up to an uncertain outcome in the presidential election.
  26. Lili Bayer @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 10:11 AMSLOVENIAN PM BACKS TRUMP’S VICTORY CLAIMSlovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša congratulated U.S. Republicans, tweeting that “it’s pretty clear that American people have elected” Donald Trump. “More delays and facts denying from msm, bigger the final triumph for potus,” he wrote. The American president had earlier claimed victory, even though vote counts continue across the country.
  27. Cristina Gonzalez @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:59 AMPATIENCE AND PARTNERSHIP, WHOEVER WINSWhile waiting for the election results, the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted that the EU “remains ready to continue building a strong transatlantic partnership, based on our shared values and history.”
  28. Joshua Posaner @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:58 AMGERMAN CONTENDER SAYS AMERICANS DON’T NEED LECTURESFriedrich Merz, one of the three candidates to lead the governing Christian Democratic Union party in Germany, said whatever happens stateside over the coming days, lessons from Berlin aren’t needed. “America will redefine its own interests whether Trump or Biden wins the election,” Merz tweeted.Though the election could descend into a court dispute, it won’t be on Germans to offer lessons. “I believe the Americans don’t need any lecturing from us,” he said this morning.
  29. Mark Scott @ NOVEMBER 4, 20209:51 AMTRUMP’S CLAIMS OF FRAUD PICKED UP ON SOCIAL MEDIAWithin minutes of Trump’s speech, right-wing groups across social media jumped onto the false narrative that the U.S. election was facing widespread fraud issues. In the weeks building up to yesterday’s vote, conservative influencers had pushed that online narrative, often citing unproven allegations that Democratic operatives were trying to steal the vote. Those coordinated campaigns, based on a review of Facebook and Twitter activity in the hour or so after Trump’s speech, have again been galvanized, and were coalescing around a few hashtags that had garnered thousands of tweets and Facebook posts since Trump took to the stage.
  30. Cornelius Hirsch @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:43 AMPATH TO VICTORY NARROWS FOR TRUMPWith Arizona being called for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, the road to 270 electoral college votes is becoming narrower for President Donald Trump. The president would need to win almost all remaining battleground states, including some where the final polls before the election showed Joe Biden ahead by significant margins. However, Trump is still not out of the running at this point.
  31. Charlie Cooper @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:38 AMUK LABOUR SLAMS TRUMP’S DECLARATION OF VICTORYThe U.K.’s opposition Labour party is taking a more critical line on U.S. President Donald Trump prematurely declaring victory than the British government has. Shadow Foreign Secretary Lisa Nandy told ITV’s Good Morning Britain program that the president’s comments this morning had “proven why questions of democracy, people’s right to be heard, free and fair elections are absolutely at stake in this election.” She said that the U.K. government, for years now, “has not really taken account of the fact that this is a president that doesn’t play by the rules.”
  32. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:31 AM’CORKS POPPING’ IN BEIJING AND MOSCOWIn an apparent comment on the U.S. election, the European Commission’s representative in Berlin Jörg Wojahn said “champagne corks are popping in Moscow and Beijing.”
  33. Charlie Cooper @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:21 AMHUNT CONCERNEDConcern about the uncertain outcome and Trump’s comments about the validity of the vote is bubbling up in Boris Johnson’s Conservative party. Former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has told POLITICO: “We need to make sure protracted legal arguments don’t turn into a catastrophe for the worldwide reputation of democracy.”
  34. Charlie Cooper @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:15 AMSCOTLAND’S STURGEON: ‘CRUCIAL HOURS’ FOR INTEGRITY OF US DEMOCRACYScotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, in an apparent response to Trump’s premature claim of victory, said in a tweet there were “crucial hours and days ahead for the integrity of US democracy. Let’s hope we start to hear the voices of Republicans who understand the importance of that.”
  35. PIerre-Paul Bermingham @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:11 AMLE PEN: ‘TRUMP IS BETTER FOR FRANCE’French far-right politician Marine Le Pen said “I think the reelection of Trump is better for France.”Speaking on CNEWS, she said “A leader who pleads for the return of the nation, of patriotism, of borders, and of sovereignty, in my opinion is headed in the same direction as history.”She also criticized pollsters, the media, and others whom she said predicted a Biden win.
  36. Charlie Cooper @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 9:07 AMUK FOREIGN SECRETARY: ‘CONTOURS’ OF RELATIONSHIP WITH US COULD ‘SHIFT A LITTLE’U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab did not directly address U.S. President Donald Trump premature declaration of victory. Asked by Sky News whether these were the values the U.K wanted to see in the leader of the free world, Raab said: “We respect the values of democracy and the checks and balances reflected in the U.S. system which we’re very confident will produce a result.”He said there was not a clear result yet and that there may not be one “for hours if not days.” He said the “contours” of the U.K.-U.S. relationship might “shift a little” depending on the occupant of the White House, but that “the bedrock of economies ties, security cooperation and shared values” would mean the alliance would remain strong.
  37. Elisa Braun – NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:52 AM


    French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on French radio that the outcome of the American elections, whatever it might be, would not change much for European commercial interests since the U.S. “has not been a friendly partner for the EU.”

    Criticizing the “rivalry” between the U.S. and Europe, Le Maire said on Radio Classique that Europe ought to build “a powerful economic and political entity between China and the United States.”

    “Whether Joe Biden or Trump is chosen by the Americans does not change this strategic fact … the American continent has detached itself from the European continent and it is time for Europeans to assume their responsibilities.”

  38. David M. Herszenhorn – NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:47 AMNEWS OUTLETS REJECTING TRUMP CLAIMSU.S. news outlets cautioned that Trump’s claim of victory was premature and inaccurate and his claims of widespread electoral malfeasance were without evidence, “It’s undemocratic and false and premature,” CNN’s Jake Tapper said. “It is not accurate to say that he won.”Fox News’s Chris Wallace said: “This is an extremely flammable situation and the president just threw a match into it.”
  39. David M. Herszenhorn @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:44 AMPENCE: ‘WE WILL REMAIN VIGILANT’Appearing with Trump, Vice President Mike Pence thanked supporters but unlike the president, did not outright claim victory. Still, Pence did not contradict Trump’s claims of fraud. “I want to join you in thanking more than 60 million Americans who have already cast their vote for four more years of President Donald Trump in the White House. And while the votes continue to be counted we are going to remain vigilant as the president said. The right to vote has been at the center of our democracy since the founding of this nation, and we are going to protect the integrity of the vote.”Pence said he believed the Republicans had won. “But I really believe with all my heart, ” he told Trump, “with the the extraordinary margins you inspired. I truly do believe as you do, that we are on the road to victory and we will make American great again, again.”
  40. David M. Herszenhorn @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:38 AMTRUMP IGNORES POPULAR VOTEIn prematurely declaring victory, and alleging election fraud with no evidence, U.S. President Donald Trump predictably ignored the tally in the popular vote showing that he is already more than 1.6 million votes behind former Vice President Joe Biden, and has virtually no statistical chance of a mathematical mandate even if he wins the Electoral College and a second term.
  41. Emma Anderson @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:34 AM
    WHY IT’S STILL TOO SOON TO CALL THE VOTEAs our POLITICO U.S. colleague Zach Montellaro reports, it’s still too early to call the election because key battleground states still have millions of mail ballots to count. Election officials are urging caution about interpreting incomplete results. And neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden have secured 270 electoral votes.Zach writes: “The current vote count in several important swing states does show Trump with the lead so far, among votes already counted — but approximately one-third of the expected vote has not yet been counted in Michigan or Pennsylvania, and a significant part of the expected vote is still outstanding in Wisconsin.Voters cast a record-breaking number of ballots by mail this year, which can take longer to count, and there was a sharp partisan split around when and how people voted: Poll after poll showed that in-person voters on Election Day would favor the president, while voters who cast ballots via the mail were overwhelmingly backing Biden.”
  42. David M. Herszenhorn @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:32 AM
    Trump also falsely claimed that the tallies aren’t reflecting his victory in Texas — a state that television networks and news organizations had all awarded to the president in their results. And he insisted he had won Pennsylvania, where many votes are still not counted. “We’re up 690,000 votes in Pennsylvania,” he said. “These aren’t even close. This is not like oh, it’s close. With 64 percent of the vote in, it’s going to be almost impossible to catch.”
  43. David M. Herszenhorn @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:27 AM
    Appearing in the East Room of the White House at 2:20 a.m. in Washington, President Donald Trump declared that “millions and millions” of Americans had voted for him but his opponents were trying to disenfranchise them.
    “A very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people. And we won’t allow it,” Trump said.
  44. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:20 AM
    GERMAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS HOPE FOR END TO TRUMP ‘NIGHTMARE’“Despite four years of continuous crisis, the result of the presidential election seems at first glance less clear than expected,” German MEP Udo Bullmann, the European affairs representative for the Social Democratic Party leadership, said in a statement.“We hope for the USA that the nightmare Trump will finally come to an end,” Bullmann said, adding that a second Trump term would mean further “regression for international cooperation,” while a Biden victory would mean that Europe could again “count on the United States.”
  45. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:15 AM
    AMBIDEN OR TRUMP, EU HAS TO DEFEND OWN INTERESTS, SAYS GERMAN MINISTERGerman Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said he is still waiting for “clarity” on the U.S. election results, but argued that irrespective of the winner, the EU must push for its own interests on the economic and climate front.“We need clarity on a global level as to who will lead the world’s greatest power to advance business and climate protection,” Altmaier told German broadcaster ZDF, according to a tweet by his ministry. “In any case, Europe has its own interests to represent — against Trump as well as Biden.”
  46. Elisa Braun @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 8:14 AM
    FRENCH MEDIA CALL FOR PATIENCEMany major French media outlets are emphasizing the inconclusive outcome of the election. Le Monde refers to “a very close duel,” while Libération and Les Échos warn about jumping to conclusions on “window dressing results.” Le Figaro writes: “After the Trump tornado, the world holds its breath.” Le Parisien, for its part, predicts that “the suspense should last at least until Friday.” France Inter radio struck a more pessimistic note, saying “there was no wave of democracy as some commentators expected,” adding that “this is the worst scenario because each side is claiming victory.” In the meantime, the “Big Bazar” (“big mess”) on Libération’s front page refers to … France’s second lockdown.
  47. Cornelius Hirsch @ NOVEMBER 4, 20207:49 AM
    Are the pollsters heading for a 2016-like debacle? For now, it doesn’t look like it. Although President Donald Trump beat expectations in Florida by doing better than the final polls would have suggested, there’s no sign of a general polling error across the other battleground states that are reporting results so far.
  48. David M. Herszenhorn @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 7:45 AM
    BIDEN’S MAN IN EUROPE HAS NO REGRETSAnthony Gardner, the former U.S. ambassador to the EU under President Barack Obama, has served as the Biden campaign’s point-man in Europe. And with the election still far too close to call, he says his conscience is clear: “I am proud to have done all I could,” Gardner tweeted.
  49. Joshua Posaner @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 7:33 AM
    GERMANY’S RÖTTGEN SAYS TRUMP WIN WOULD BE CHALLENGE.  A win for Donald Trump would “challenge us fundamentally,” according to Norbert Röttgen, the chair of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee and a contender to lead the governing Christian Democratic Union party. “A second election victory would challenge us fundamentally, in a way in which we are not prepared,” he tweeted. He conceded early Wednesday the race is “closer than expected” with plenty of “potential for conflict” over the final result. “Americans were told that there are many good arguments to vote [Trump] out,” said Röttgen. “The focus was not on choosing Biden.”
  50. Laurenz Gehrke @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 7:11 AM
    UNCERTAIN SUNRISE – European Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni came over all philosophical early this morning, faced with a U.S. election too close to call and a beautiful Brussels sunrise. “The most uncertain sunrise,” he tweeted.
  51. Cornelius Hirsch @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 7:00 AM
    BIDEN DOING BETTER THAN CLINTON – Joe Biden is doing better than Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to an analysis of 600 completed county-level results by CBS News decision desk.
  52. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:59 AM
    TRUMP SAYS DEMOCRATS WANT TO ‘STEAL’ ELECTION“We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!” U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted.Trump deleted a prior tweet in which he had written, to the amusement of some, about “Poles” instead of “polls.” Twitter immediately tagged his new tweet with a warning that “some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.”
  53. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:57 AM
    BIDEN SAYS DEMOCRATS ARE ‘ON TRACK TO WIN ELECTION’In a speech at a drive-in amphitheater, Democratic candidate Joe Biden said he believes that “we are on track to win this election.”“I’m optimistic about this outcome,” Biden told his supporters, as they honked their car horns. Yet he urged people “to be patient,” saying that the results might not be fully confirmed before “tomorrow morning [U.S. time], maybe longer.”“It ain’t over until every vote is counted,” Biden said. “Keep the faith folks. We’re going to win this.”
  54. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:56 AMTOP GERMAN SOCIAL DEMOCRAT ‘OPTIMISTIC’ THAT BIDEN WINSThe Secretary-General of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) Lars Klingbeil told BILD newspaper that he’s upbeat about Joe Biden winning the election race. “If we were to vote in Germany, 92 percent would be for Biden. My wish is that Trump loses today and I’m also quite optimistic,” Klingbeil said. President Trump argued over the weekend that Germany, alongside China and Iran, “wants to get rid of me.”
  55. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:41 AMBETTING MARKETS FAVOR TRUMPOdds placed on betting markets have flipped and now see Donald Trump as the likely winner of the election race. Bettors on British betting exchange Betfair give Trump a 60 percent chance of winning a second term as president in comparison to only 39 percent when polls opened on Tuesday morning U.S. time. “Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, according to Reuters.The report also says that 65 percent of win-odds at the U.K.-based Smarkets Exchange are going to Trump, up from 39 percent on Tuesday morning, while Biden’s win-odds crashed from 61 percent to 35 percent. Historically, however, betting markets have not always offered a reliable prediction of election results.
  56. Hans Joachim Von Der Burchard @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:17 AMEUROPEAN NEWSPAPERS SEE PATHWAY FOR TRUMPMost European newspapers’ online editions lead at the moment with President Donald Trump’s apparent win in Florida and the potential success of his opponent Joe Biden in Arizona.There’s also a recognition that the incumbent has fared “better than expected,” as the Dutch De Volkskrant says.“The vote count favors Trump and points to a very tight result,” says Spain’s El País.“Biden wins in Arizona but has no breakthrough,” says Italy’s Corriere della Sera.

    Meanwhile, Germany’s BILD argues that it is too early to declare either candidate the likely winner: “For those who join us know and see a mostly red U.S. map and think Trump has pulled it off again, let me tell you … Many of the decisive states still haven’t been announced. This could still go both ways,” a BILD reporter said, in an almost reassuring tone, to German viewers of an online livestream by the newspaper.

  57. Emma Anderson @ NOVEMBER 4, 2020 6:08 AMWHERE THINGS STAND AT 6AM, CET:— Donald Trump is poised to win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.— But it’s too early to call Pennsylvania and Arizona, which could be key. Joe Biden appears to have a lead in Arizona.— Democrats have kept the House — the first step in their drive to win full control of Congress.


Election Results


ABC News


New York Times



CBS News


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